When the FIFA World Cup 2026 draw took place in Washington D.C. in December 2025, Iran’s delegation almost didn’t make it. Three of its seven-person team had their US visas denied under the Trump administration’s sweeping travel restrictions. A last-minute intervention unlocked the approvals, the officials flew in, and Iran was placed in Group G alongside Belgium, Egypt, and New Zealand — with all three of its group-stage matches assigned to US venues on the West Coast. The draw went smoothly. The group stage, scheduled to kick off June 11, is rather less certain.
That was before February 28, when the United States and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran, beginning a conflict that has so far closed the Strait of Hormuz, sparked energy crises across Asia, and left FIFA managing the most politically fraught tournament in the history of the sport. Never before has a World Cup host nation been at war with the nation of a participating team. The precedent is completely new, and FIFA’s response — a firm refusal to move Iran’s matches, combined with a determination to keep politics out of sport — has left players, coaches, officials, and fans in a state of prolonged uncertainty with barely eight weeks to go until the opening match.
The Relocation Request and FIFA’s Refusal
Shortly after the war began, Iran’s Football Federation president Mehdi Taj made the position clear: when US President Donald Trump had “explicitly stated that he cannot ensure the security of the Iranian national team, we will certainly not travel to America.” Iran formally requested that FIFA relocate its Group G matches from US venues to Mexico, one of the tournament’s two other co-hosts. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum signalled openness, saying her country “maintains diplomatic relations with every country in the world” and would wait to see what FIFA decided.
FIFA decided quickly. The organisation’s statement was terse but unambiguous: “FIFA is looking forward to all participating teams competing as per the match schedule announced on 6 December 2025.” FIFA President Gianni Infantino, who met Iranian players, coaches, and officials in Antalya, Turkey, on the sidelines of an Iran friendly against Costa Rica in late March, confirmed the same position in person. “The matches will be played where they are supposed to be, according to the draw,” he said. Mexico’s own president subsequently reaffirmed the decision: “It would make logistics too complicated, and this decision was taken by FIFA.”
The logistical argument is real. Iran’s three Group G fixtures are specifically assigned to SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California (against New Zealand on June 16, against Belgium on June 21) and Lumen Field in Seattle (against Egypt on June 27). Reassigning those matches to Mexican venues would require rescheduling the entire affected block — impacting venue contracts, broadcast rights, ticketing, hotel bookings, and the fixtures of the other three Group G teams whose travel logistics are planned around the current venues. In a tournament of 48 teams and 104 matches spread across three countries, a late-stage reshuffle of this kind is not a procedural inconvenience. It is a logistical reconstruction.
The Safety Question Nobody Can Answer
The more fundamental issue is one that FIFA cannot resolve through scheduling decisions: the physical safety of Iranian players and staff travelling to and playing in the United States while their country is at war with the US government.
Trump’s own statements have been characteristically contradictory. He told reporters that Iran was “welcome to come” to the US for its matches but simultaneously said he “really don’t believe it is appropriate that they be there, for their own life and safety” — and later clarified that any threat would not come from the United States itself. For Iranian football chief Mehdi Taj, a former member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, those comments were sufficient grounds to demand a venue change. For FIFA, they were not sufficient grounds to override a pre-announced match schedule for a 48-team tournament.
Iran’s sports minister Ahmad Donyamali was direct about the stakes: “Under these circumstances, the possibility of Iran participating in the World Cup matches in the US is very low, but if the relevant security guarantees are provided, our government will make the final decision.” He urged FIFA to ensure the necessary security arrangements were in place and criticised Trump’s “morally and ethically unbalanced statements.”
The players themselves, by most accounts, want to play. Infantino said after visiting the squad in Turkey that “I’ve seen the team, I’ve spoken to the players and the coach, so everything is fine.” Iran’s national team posted on social media that “no one can exclude Iran’s national team from the World Cup.” The squad had continued training preparations for the tournament even as its federation’s leadership threatened a boycott of US-hosted matches.
The Boycott Threat and Its Consequences
The distinction between “boycott” and “withdrawal” has been an important one in Iranian football’s public communications. Mehdi Taj said Iran “intends to boycott matches in the United States” but insisted the team had “no intention of pulling out of the tournament” entirely. The implication was a middle position — Iran would remain registered, but refuse to travel to US venues, hoping FIFA would eventually relent on relocation.
FIFA has not relented. And if Iran were to refuse to appear for its scheduled group-stage matches, the consequences would be severe. The federation would face fines, forfeiture of its prize money from the tournament, and potential bans from future FIFA competitions. The last time a national team withdrew from a FIFA World Cup was 1950 — a very different era of international sport. There is no modern precedent for how FIFA would manage a situation in which a qualified team simply does not show up to its scheduled matches.
Italy, which failed to qualify for the tournament during the European playoff process, has been mentioned as a potential replacement should Iran withdraw — though FIFA has not confirmed any such contingency plan, and Infantino’s most recent public statements suggest the organisation believes Iran will compete.
Infantino’s Position
By mid-April, with a fragile two-week ceasefire in place between the US and Iran, FIFA’s position has hardened into confident optimism. Speaking at a CNBC economic conference on April 15, Infantino said Iran was “coming for sure” and repeated his view that “sports must be beyond politics.” He described the unprecedented nature of the situation with something approaching equanimity: “If no one else is building bridges to connect relationships, we are striving to do so.”
The tournament is projected to generate upwards of $11 billion in revenue — the largest in FIFA’s history. There have been more than 500 million ticket requests. The scale of the commercial and reputational stakes gives FIFA powerful incentives to keep all 48 teams at the start line, including the one that is most reluctant to show up.
The ceasefire has changed the calculus modestly. With peace talks under way and the ceasefire potentially being extended, the prospect of Iranian players landing in California in June is less remote than it appeared in mid-March. But Iran’s sports minister has made clear that the decision will ultimately rest not with FIFA, but with the Iranian government — and that government’s calculus depends on factors that no amount of logistical goodwill from Gianni Infantino can resolve.
Eight weeks until kick-off. The most consequential question in the history of the World Cup is still unanswered.
Written by Shalin Soni, CMA specializing in financial analysis, global markets, and corporate strategy, with hands-on experience in financial planning and analytical decision-making.
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Source: Based on Bloomberg and publicly available information.
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This article is based on publicly available information, market developments, and credible media reports. The content is intended for informational and analytical purposes only and should not be considered financial, investment, or legal advice.